Tropical Storm Laura path shifts, but still Florida threat; could join TD 14 as hurricanes in Gulf next week

“We see some pretty good land interaction it looks like on the new proposed track,” said FOX 35 meteorologist Jayme King. “Much of the Florida peninsula, all of it pretty much in fact is now out of the cone of uncertainty, but all sites now on the western Florida Panhandle around Pensacola toward Mobile Bay, Alabama with a possible Category 1 hurricane strike there by Wednesday.”

Before then, though, the forecast track has Laura moving over the northern Leeward Islands today, near Puerto Rico on Saturday morning and along the northern coast of Hispaniola on late Saturday or early Sunday.

The U.S. has issued tropical storm warnings for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands while other country governments have issued warnings for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, British Virgin Islands, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic. A tropical storm watch is in place for parts of Haiti’s northern coast.

Long-term projections for Tropical Storm Laura have it near the Florida Keys on Monday still as a tropical storm, but then into the Gulf of Mexico off Florida’s southwest coast as a Category 1 hurricane where it will then head to the Florida Panhandle.

Here's the latest #GOES16 loop of newly-formed #TropicalStormLaura. #Laura is the earliest L-named storm in the Atlantic on record. More: https://t.co/VTAp4gGkHs https://t.co/Mfv88zQ8G7 pic.twitter.com/I7YuROi0td

— NOAA Satellites – Public Affairs (@NOAASatellitePA) August 21, 2020

Officials in the Florida Keys declared a local state of emergency Friday and issued a mandatory evacuation order for anyone living in boats, mobile homes and in recreational vehicles and campers. Tourists who are staying in hotels in the Florida Keys should be aware of hazardous weather conditions and consider altering their plans starting on Sunday, Monroe County officials said in a news release. The order also says all recreational vehicles must be removed from the county by noon Sunday.

“Residents should continue to monitor the storm and be prepared for Category 1 hurricane winds and strong squalls,” said Shannon Wiener, Monroe County Emergency Management Director. “Please secure all boats and outside items over the weekend for this event.”

Laura’s future is unclear as the storm faces a number of factors that could stymie its growth and others that would promote it as it stays on track toward Florida. While land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba as well as dry air could deter its development, Laura is also projected to move over an area of the Gulf of Mexico where is should be generally favorable for tropical development, the NHC said.

“The possibilities range from the system degenerating to an open wave as seen in the GFS (American model) and ECMWF (European model) to a major hurricane,” the NHC said.

Other meteorologists are more confident Laura will become a hurricane at some point, as will Tropical Depression 14 as it heads toward Texas, said King early Friday.

“Both will become a hurricane, and possibly two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time,” King said.

If TD 14 becomes a tropical storm it will be named Marco.

As of 2 p.m. Friday, TD 14 is 180 miles east-northeast of Isla Roatan, Honduras and 280 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, heading northwest at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula north and west of Cancun to Dzilam while a tropical storm warning remains in effect from the Honduras-Nicaragua border west to Punta Castilla, Honduras as well as the Bay Islands of Honduras.

TD 14 is expected to become a tropical storm Friday evening as it moves over the Honduras coastline. The center is expected to move over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday, and then moving back into the warm waters of the Gulf, where it is expected to brew into hurricane strength early Monday morning.

The storm is then projected to take aim at the Texas coastline, the NHC showed in its modeling.

A tropical wave off the coast of Africa is also moving west Friday morning.

The wave is a large area of disorganized showers and is expected to move farther off shore at a speed of 15 to 20 mph. Environmental factors are not conducive to its development but it has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next two days and a 30% chance of doing so in the next five.

More coverage at OrlandoSentinel.com/hurricane.