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Here’s the 2020 Us Election Result If Polls Are as Wrong as They Were in 2016

Monday, November 2, 2020 By Stillness in the Storm Leave a Comment

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(Strange Sounds) While very fluid, we can track the latest results of the electronic prediction markets and polling data.

Related Mail-in Voting Will Not Prevent a Trump Victory

Source – Strange Sounds

by Staff Writer, November 2nd, 2020

PredictIt currently has a 65% chance for a Biden victory. This is up from a week ago at 62.9% and also higher than four weeks ago.

As usual one has to be aware of just how little capital needs to be deployed to manipulate the illiquid PredictIt market.

A Trump victory has a roughly 41% probability according to this data, which is up slightly from 37.1% a week ago.

The national polls – compiled by Real Clear Politics – suggest a similar tilt in the race with Biden having a 51.3%-43.5% lead against Trump.

rcp polls results 2020, rcp polls results 2020 biden trump, election polls result 2020
rcp polls results 2020

So according to these first analyses, Biden currently leads in all the battleground, or “toss up” states except for Ohio, Arizona and Texas. This would give him a comfortable Electoral College (EC) victory of 346-192…

US presidential election, trump biden poll resulsts, us election polls
All polls show that Biden will win 202 presidential election easily.

But the popularity of Biden seems to decrease in new RCP’s average polls of Top Battleground states (FL, PA, MI, WI, NC, AZ), falling down to +3.1 and with Arizona just flipping to Trump in the past 24 hours.

US presidential election, trump biden poll resulsts, us election polls
New polls show that Trump is coming closer to Biden in the last days of the US presidential election.

Polls are imperfect

2016 showed that poll results are imperfect.

Now, if we apply the polling miss from 2016 as Bank of America did last week, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Iowa and and Maine would flip. For this exercise we have used the latest RCP polling average data as of Oct 31:

  • Arizona: Trump +0.6
  • Florida: Biden +1.2
  • Michigan: Biden +6.5
  • North Carolina: Biden +1.2
  • Pennsylvania: Biden +3.7
  • Wisconsin: Biden +6.4
  • Georgia: Biden +0.8
  • Iowa: Biden +1.2
  • Maine 2: Biden +2.7
  • Minnesota: Biden +4.7
  • Nebraska-2: Biden +7.8
  • Nevada: Biden +4.0
  • Ohio: Tie
  • Texas: Trump +2.3

These numbers were then adjusted by applying the same error rates as were observed during the 2016 polling, and the results are shown in the table below:

trump vs biden 2016 errors for 2020 presidential election shows a Trump win, trump wins election against biden, biden trump poll results 2020
Trump wins 2020 presidential election if we take the same uncertainty as during 2016 election.

Remarkably, if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Trump would win with 279 of the 538 electoral votes, while Biden would get 259.

Recount, delays, contested outcomes

The margin of victory would be within 0.5 percentage points in Wisconsin (for Biden) and Georgia (for Trump), which would trigger an automatic recount and delay results.

In addition, the margin in Pennsylvania and Florida would be less than 1.0%, likely resulting in a bitter post-election night fight and contested outcomes.

Putting this together, Bloomberg said it best: “All of that means a Trump win on Tuesday would represent a historically staggering failure by public opinion polls, eclipsing even the 2016 miss. While the president’s chances of being re-elected aren’t zero, pollsters say it’s a long shot.“

In short, no matter what happens on Nov 3, expect recounts and extensive delays before we have a clear winner.

Stillness in the Storm Editor: Why did we post this?

The news is important to all people because it is where we come to know new things about the world, which leads to the development of more life goals that lead to life wisdom. The news also serves as a social connection tool, as we tend to relate to those who know about and believe the things we do. With the power of an open truth-seeking mind in hand, the individual can grow wise and the collective can prosper. 

– Justin

Not sure how to make sense of this? Want to learn how to discern like a pro? Read this essential guide to discernment, analysis of claims, and understanding the truth in a world of deception: 4 Key Steps of Discernment – Advanced Truth-Seeking Tools.


Stillness in the Storm Editor’s note: Did you find a spelling error or grammatical mistake? Send an email to [email protected], with the error and suggested correction, along with the headline and url. Do you think this article needs an update? Or do you just have some feedback? Send us an email at sitsshow@gmail.com. Thank you for reading.

Source:

https://strangesounds.org/2020/11/us-election-result-polls-as-wrong-as-in-2016-trump-wins.html

Filed Under: News, Politics Tagged With: 2016 election, 2020 election, Joe Biden, strange sounds, trump

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Our mission here is to curate (share) articles and information that we feel is important for the evolution of consciousness. Most of that information is written or produced by other people and organizations, which means it does not represent our views or opinions as managing staff of Stillness in the Storm. Some of the content is written by one of our writers and is clearly marked accordingly. Just because we share a CNN story that speaks badly about the President doesn’t mean we’re promoting anti-POTUS views. We’re reporting on the fact as it was reported, and that this event is important for us to know so we can better contend with the challenges of gaining freedom and prosperity. Similarly, just because we share a pro/anti-[insert issue or topic] content, such as a pro-second amendment piece or an anti-military video doesn’t mean we endorse what is said. Again, information is shared on this site for the purpose of evolving consciousness. In our opinion, consciousness evolves through the process of accumulating knowledge of the truth and contemplating that knowledge to distill wisdom and improve life by discovering and incorporating holistic values. Thus, sharing information from many different sources, with many different perspectives is the best way to maximize evolution. What’s more, the mastery of mind and discernment doesn’t occur in a vacuum, it is much like the immune system, it needs regular exposure to new things to stay healthy and strong. If you have any questions as to our mission or methods please reach out to us at [email protected].

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